What I think I see going on...

Friday had the feel of a blow off top which came about near the end of the day when the SPY creeped higher and touched the 200 day mva for the 1st time since the Bear market began. I think this triggered huge black box buy orders in the various stock index futures markets which was evident in the volumes. I also suspect that certain players anticipated this reflex and laid into the spike with massive sell orders, closing longs and even flipping over into new shorts. Monday could feel quite painful intra day with a cup and handle type break out look to it with confirming heavy volume but my money says it's a trap and that break out volume will actually be distribution selling, finishing with a lower close. This will also set up the first diverged RSI sell signal on the daily SPY chart since the March rally began. I still believe the dollar will begin trending higher along with bonds while stocks, pm's, basic materials will begin a trend lower.