Friday, May 1, 2009

Fib works revised

I noticed that the stress test day (May 7th) falls at an exact equal fib 1.382 days of the initial leg X and would mirror leg Y of the correction. Assuming the market launches higher on the release of the news and closes on the highs would potentially allow for Friday the 8th to intra-day pin the 200 day moving average, or come very close to it. I would expect the market to roll over and close at the lows on massive volume forming a key reversal and marking the beginning of a new leg down as per the charts below.


Sketching the above scenario in, stepping back and visualizing the setup, looks harmonious and balanced and my trading will be towards that outcome unless the market tells me otherwise. As per the chart below..

Another interesting situation that has developed is in the high yield bond etf JNK which is now flashing another bearish divergent RSI signal which would help confirm a new leg down in the equity markets if it plays out.

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