SPX weekly with RSI

wow what a way to end the weekly close.. that last minute mini dive bomber action strengthened the sell signal on the weekly charts and now the 200 day moving avg (40wma on the weekly) is now in the cross hairs...

IYR head and shoulders objective hit..

Interesting that just as the IYR is reaching it's head and shoulders price objective we are starting to see bonds roll over. I'm long the April 85 SPG puts from 8.30
The weekly SPX with RSI chart picture is still flashing a sell signal but I'd really like to see a lower close on the weekly bar..

Weekly $SPX

If we can get $SPX to come back to around 1105-1110ish that would take some of the edge off of RSI's rise and still allow for a strong bearish read of the charts. In the chart below I copied and pulled up the RSI and tweaked it to reflect how it would look if we can get a lower close tomorrow to finish off the weekly bar...

inflation deflation tug of war..

Sell signal intensifies

Today's close coming in below the previous weekly close influences the RSI plot in a way that intensifies the sell signal with a minimum target back to the 200 day moving average. ..

DUG vs. $USDUPX.X (U.S. Dollar index)

The normal correlation between DUG and the dollar is on hold while DUG consolidates in a bullish flag pattern. I'm expecting DUG to break higher...

Weekly divergence still intact..

The chart looks like it's stalling out and trying to hold the 1100 area. the outside intraday ranges seem to be tracing out an arc type affair that appears to have reached exhaustion....

SPX vs RSI overlaid with RSI

Once again SPX is flashing an RSI sell signal while UUP is flashing an RSI buy signal. A good visual on the reverse correlation between the two charts is presented below...

expanding triangle for a finish

I think I'm seeing an expanding triangle and hoping she breaks lower...


Also looks like the weekly RSI sell signal is still intact if we can close near the lows of the day...

XOM sell signal

XOM has the potential to lead the markets onwards and upwards except there is one little problem.. I've seen this patterned played out before not too long ago....

SPX RSI weekly signal

The weekly RSI minimum downside target projection falls in a zone where it would both touch the 200 day moving average which is well over due and lines up parallel lower but rising channel with the current upper channel line projection. I'm looking for a 960 to 980 within the next 10 trading days.

ASA is looking due for a correction

I'm expecting a decent size pull back in ASA..

$DJCOMP weekly target

Looking at the weekly chart of the Dow composite index things look lined up to finally test the 200 day moving average which is at the apprx area of the minimum downside projection of the weekly RSI sell signal that is now flashing. If this price objective is met it will cause another longer term (weekly) topping chart pattern to emerge the likes of which is still yet to be seen...

RSI target hit..

well the RSI sell target has been hit and I'd expect stocks may try to move back up to test the highs again however the divergence that is opening up between the high yield ramp job and utilities suggest high yield bonds have gotten ahead of themselves and should spook the market some as it comes back inline, therefore I suspect the selling in equities isn't over yet...

$SPX intra day channel targets

The intra day divergence between the $SPX and RSI calls for a test of and potential break of the lower channel line...

flag consolidation in IYG

I'm seeing a flag consolidation in IYG which would measure apprx. the mid way point of the move lower and would also help get us to the minimum price objective down triggered by the RSI sell signal on the SPY...

$SPX vs XOM

I'm keeping a close eye on XOM as a clue to where $SPX may be heading longer term.
Notice how XOM sold off less then the markets since the 2007 top yet since the bounce off the lows XOM has lagged and seems to be trading within a longer term consolation and in fact price seems to be struggling to get above a very long term uptrend line. I think I can apply a Elliott wave count to XOM that suggests price is about to fail out this level and take us down in a large C wave affair...

IYM technicals

Looks to me like IYM technical speaking is at a minimum only halfway through it's move lower which aligns with UUP and SPY targets..

SPY intra day flag/triangle consolidation

Looks like money is leaking out of the bottom of the intra day triangle consolidation in the SPY...

Dollar vs. SPY

an overlay comparison of UUP over SPY with RSI divergent signals suggest the blue dashed lines as minimum targets in the price action..

The next shoe to drop...

Just looking at C from a technical stand point let alone the fundies and I think I can see where one of the next shoes to drop will come from. On the daily when you see a test of the lows coming in this kind of pattern and then look a little deeper and see the one minute intra day bar chart with OBV and something about to snap...

SPY weekly

The weekly chart stepped up and over ruled the whip action in the daily chart and now has a minimum price objective of 101.98 but I suspect with the speed of the decline and increasing volume accompanying it that the gravitational pull of the 200 day moving average has taken over and demands a revisit of price...

SPY thoughts..

I'm looking for a wide and volatile flag type affair in the SPY in the coming days while the weekly charts still have a bearish look to them...

$SPX techincals

I still believe the failed head and shoulders break out which sparked the last few months of rally needs to be revisited partly because you would expect a huge surge of volume on that kind of move which did not occur. Also the slower 14 day RSI has flashed a sell signal which is confirmed by the diverged OBV and I noticed that of the 4 recent roll over dips the previous 3 occurred with negligible volume and this last one was accompanied with 6 straight days of heavy volume. Lets not forget price has pulled to record distance from the 200 day moving average which is set to exert it's gravitational pull on the market....

HD head and shoulders

Home Depot looks to be setting up a head and shoulders pattern and using OBV to gauge the internal volume flow confirms and supports the idea that the neckline will break to the downside...

Looking for a lower close on the weekly $SPX

I lower close on the weekly $SPX chart will solidify an RSI sell signal and mark the beginning of a more substantial trend change...

$SPX over UUP uptade...

Price action looks about ready to spread apart...

it's still early but..

given the look and feel to the transports and the NYSI I don't see how they can close today to the plus side.. seems more how low can it close if anything...

SPY action..

I'll be looking for follow through selling on heavy volume to confirm a 2 day key reversal type move with a 1st target coming in the zone of the 200 day moving avg...

gold and the dollar...

It appears that both gold and the dollar are flashing warning signals to the equity markets. The below chart shows the coiled RSI set ups in both GDX and UUP....

a few basic technical divergences

RKH RSI

the regional banking index is holding in with a nicely divereged RSI sell signal and now it looks like ZION bank should get the ball rolling to the downside despite the AAPL party...

Elliott wave thoughts....

I'm considering the idea that wave 3 and 5 both threw over the channel based on a combination of fed pumping, corruption in analysts buy recommendations leading to the tech wreck, more fed pumping after 9/11 with more rating agency corruption leading to the housing crash and now a finale desperate fed pump that has only brought us back up to test the upper channel line. (labeled wave B) which suggests a collapse on deck (wave C) which takes us down through the lower channel line by late summer or early fall of 2010....

1939 vs. 2009 updated

GLD plays off the plunge in the dollar...

Interesting action in GLD despite the deep plunge in UUP...

SPY and UUP RSI signals

SPY looking weak..

going into the fall season SPY appears to be flashing sell signals as it edges higher with both RSI building a bearish coil and OBV not confirming the move up. Notice how OBV held firm with a higher low in July before the launch higher. This time I'm seeing the opposite..

potential SPY channels...

This appears to be as good a level as any to mark a turn lower on the SPY short term regardless of whether this is a new bull run or a topping of the downward channel...perhaps a cross roads while the dollar is coiling for a surge higher..

geometric visuals..

stepping back and searching for some geometric proportion derived off parallels tied to the major trend channels reveals one possibility that we are pressing against an upper channel in a bull trend and may need to test the low end of the range. I'm not a bull but perhaps at the least we are do for a correction..

SPY OBV

The SPY which has broken below the long term uptrend line may be forming a topping upward skewed head and shoulders pattern with the way the volume is playing out on OBV...

Dollar looks like it's about to explode north...

Looking at the dollar through UUP I'm seeing the potential for one more intra day low followed by a higher close that would mark the intermediate low for the dollar..



ALso I'm seeing the potential for a substantial move lower in the energy sector through OIH which reveals a divergent RSI on the break out higher that occurred on negligible volume, not what you would expect on a break out...

SPY broken long term trend line..

with a retest of the line from underneath..


The first substantial negative divergence in the OBV also appeared with the break of the longer term uptrend line....

Bonds and stocks dislocation...

It seems ever since the failed head and shoulders pattern on the spy, which mysteriously came on low volume, the bond and stock market have dislocated from their normal inverse relationship...