If the dollar flushes...

If the dollar flushes then I would expect the stock market might make a run for the recent highs. The RSI divergence on the daily /DX suggests there is a good chance of that happening. However with the weekly sell signal on the /ES still not completed I'm maintaining my net short positions over the weekend...

/ES 120 min bars with the weekly RSI sitaution..

The Bear flag may appear to be fading..

but looking a little deeper at some of the leaders suggests something different might be occurring...

RSI signal on the 120 min. bars...

My hope is that the 120 min. RSI sell signal is now taking hold which is supported by the much larger weekly divergent sell signal which is still calling for a meeting with the 200 day moving average. Also of note is that a channel can still be drawn outlining the over done flag..

Both daily and intra-day $tick readings at extreme extremes..

A quick glance back over several months using closing $tick values vs. SPY, and even on an intra-day basis, suggests we are at extreme overbought levels with a high probability of a market change of direction....

still not convinced..

I struggled with the idea of covering all afternoon but didn't because I can still see price inside a defined channel with a RSI divergent, though fading, on the 60 minute chart. The 120 minute chart is still a firm sell signal. Also often is the case that price hesitates for 1 or 2 days before reacting to events, this often confuses and gives a false sense of calm specially near C wave terminus...

ES/ rsi divergence at the top of the channel

If this is a corrective rally we are right at the limit of where the move should go via both the channel boundaries and the sell signal now flashing on both the 60 minute and 120 minute RSI...
(EDIT: the blogger wouldn't let me upload pics but the post was there prior to the discount rate hike)

Silver hitting a cieling..

Looks like they raising the hammer for one last severe slap down in silver...

smelled like C wave panic covering today...

Got very extreme readings on intraday $tick and RSI and I'd like to think today's close is the high of the move...

flags and consolidations....

For the most part flags, pendants and consolidations tend to tilt opposite of the primary trend. With Pavlov's dog like behavior folks are pouring into what they believe is a correction in a bull market, confirmed by what has been the case since the March bottom. However I'm seeing chart after chart of bearish flag setups suggesting to me that we about to dump hard...

Weekly RSI signal still in effect...

NASDQ COMP

Technically it wants to dump hard again...

Sooo many flags every where I look...

Just a sampling...

More on the Silver Cross...

There are two other points that a trend line can be drawn from that suggest we may need to get as low as 13ish on Silver...

Silver Cross

Based on the pattern that has played out throughout the entire bull move in Silver I am expecting support to come in at a minimum of 14ish where I will add to purchases of physical as a hedge against deflation being prevented.

sketching in the action..

RSI on the daily ES plunged pretty deep on the first leg down and now I can visualize the ES drifting up into the 1075ish area the next few days before rolling over and making a stab down at the 200 day moving average. If so, it looks to me like daily RSI may flash a bullish divergence at that point, and so I'll be looking for one of those days where we trade down and trace out a bowl type affair, closing up near the highs at the end of the day. The weekly RSI signal at that point has reached it's minimum objective and with a bullish daily divergence I may have to flip long but we'll see how things look while thrashing around down there at the 200 day moving average...

potential 3 of 3 action developing on the ES

It would fit nicely with the idea that we are going down to thrash around the 200 day moving average at a minimum soon with the ES looking like a potential 3 of 3 on deck...