2 aug 08

It's been several weeks since my last posting and I've had a major change in my outlook on the economy and now expect a protracted recession and accompanied deflationary pressures.
I'm now short the basic materials sector via SMN holding 1000@ 34.75. Also since I'm unable to short any banks/brokers directly I went long SKF from 122. I observed what looked like a long term topping head and shoulders pattern on the Utility index and decided to front run the pattern from the top of the right shoulder by buying puts on XLU and FPL and so far that decision is working well. I'm currently short 4 /ES (e-minis) and anticipating a break downward out of the current triangle pattern which also happens to be at odds with what most traders are expecting.
Ive posted a few charts on a traders forum that I frequent that show what looks like a very bearish long term double top in XOM which is support by the daily /weekly and monthly chart. I'm going to take a position short tomorrow I think but havn't decided what my plan of attack will be just yet.