Lots of people have given up on chart patterns since the fed began rigging the market with pomos but is it possible that we are seeing patterns re-emerge with predictive potential, at least while we are a ll waiting for the next fed QE operations ?
I believe we are at the top of the flag trading range right now and will begin to sell off to fresh low before any base can be formed. I may flip and go long but only after seeing some lower lows for the move off the top....
Monday, August 29, 2011
Saturday, August 13, 2011
My long term view...
I think based on the idea of zero interests rates for the next 2 years per the Fed, along with endless rounds of money printing will make the dollar the new carry trade. This will inversely prop the stock market higher. Also, stepping back from the shorter term charts my view does lend the chart picture more symmetry. This last push back up to the top should be led by inflation/commodity plays.. I'm considering MCP as a lead horse if it doesn't run away from me....
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Put/Call ratio...
Looking at a chart of the 10 day moving avg. of all puts and calls with an S&P back drop we have reached extreme levels of panic, which I believe will help fuel the next rally. I also think this portents a nasty sell off in gold and silver in a one off kind of way, that and the fact that gold ramped up above platinum, all signals to me the sheep are stampeding over a cliff...
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
SPY vs. GLD
Where as there was a correlation between GLD and SPY moving together lately, in the most recent parabolic stock drop the correlation has flipped inverse, obviously a sign of panic. The panic is legit, however if the EU pulls something out of their ass it means stocks will knife higher and gold will collapse. This tells me that any QE3 announcement will be a sell the news in gold event.
Weekly SPY closing line chart basis....
It's possible that despite all the bearish news that (via a dollar plummet) SPY could close the week at 120ish, which then tucks it's chart action right back up into the lower longer term trend channel.. as though this week never happened in the grand scheme of things.. of course in real terms any new highs would only be in nominal terms....
Friday, August 5, 2011
135ish on the spy is the next target
spread closed on SLV/JJC
Thursday, August 4, 2011
spread begins to close...
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
precious metals in a secondary blow off....
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