The Humble Speculator

1221ish on the SPY for the top of the flag conitnuation pattern

2011-08-29T13:48:00.003-04:00

Lots of people have given up on chart patterns since the fed began rigging the market with pomos but is it possible that we are seeing patterns re-emerge with predictive potential, at least while we are a ll waiting for the next fed QE operations ?
I believe we are at the top of the flag trading range right now and will begin to sell off to fresh low before any base can be formed. I may flip and go long but only after seeing some lower lows for the move off the top....

My long term view...

2011-08-13T10:50:00.003-04:00

I think based on the idea of zero interests rates for the next 2 years per the Fed, along with endless rounds of money printing will make the dollar the new carry trade. This will inversely prop the stock market higher. Also, stepping back from the shorter term charts my view does lend the chart picture more symmetry. This last push back up to the top should be led by inflation/commodity plays.. I'm considering MCP as a lead horse if it doesn't run away from me....

Put/Call ratio...

2011-08-11T10:08:00.002-04:00

Looking at a chart of the 10 day moving avg. of all puts and calls with an S&P back drop we have reached extreme levels of panic, which I believe will help fuel the next rally. I also think this portents a nasty sell off in gold and silver in a one off kind of way, that and the fact that gold ramped up above platinum, all signals to me the sheep are stampeding over a cliff...

SPY vs. GLD

2011-08-10T13:40:00.005-04:00

Where as there was a correlation between GLD and SPY moving together lately, in the most recent parabolic stock drop the correlation has flipped inverse, obviously a sign of panic. The panic is legit, however if the EU pulls something out of their ass it means stocks will knife higher and gold will collapse. This tells me that any QE3 announcement will be a sell the news in gold event.

Weekly SPY closing line chart basis....

2011-08-10T12:27:00.002-04:00

It's possible that despite all the bearish news that (via a dollar plummet) SPY could close the week at 120ish, which then tucks it's chart action right back up into the lower longer term trend channel.. as though this week never happened in the grand scheme of things.. of course in real terms any new highs would only be in nominal terms....

Time for silver to take another slap down?

2011-08-10T12:26:00.002-04:00

Looks like silver wants some more attention...

135ish on the spy is the next target

2011-08-05T13:14:00.003-04:00

The bottom is in. We can thrash around down here for another week or two but the break out will be higher up to 135ish on the SPY before it corrects to any degree. My ultimate target is 141...

spread closed on SLV/JJC

2011-08-05T12:29:00.002-04:00

..and there you have it. Silver / Copper spread has closed but I do expect much more selling of both, down to 24ish on silver...

spread begins to close...

2011-08-04T12:26:00.003-04:00

I'm wondering if once the spread between SLV/CRBQ/SPY closes it signals covering equity shorts and going long on a QE3 announcement. The spread is beginning to close today...

precious metals in a secondary blow off....

2011-08-03T12:34:00.002-04:00

another view of the situation in silver is compared to both SPY and CRBQ which are suggesting major market slow down while silver breaks away to the upside. This spread will close soon enough....

copper / silver spread suggest good time to short silver

2011-08-03T12:06:00.002-04:00

based on the 10 day comparison chart between copper and silver it looks like a good time to ease into short positions in SLV....

Head and shoulders neckline ready to bust

2011-08-02T11:17:00.005-04:00

Looking for the neckline to break *briefly* at 1268 (closing basis line chart) taking us down hard leading into QE3. I still expect a new high into November as per the second chart...

just one marginal new high...

2010-03-08T19:27:00.002-05:00

Just give me one marginal new high to get back short again...

I'm going with the brief dollar weakness train of thought..

2010-03-02T18:27:00.002-05:00

Last night and today's trading in the /ES has me throwing in the towel and looking for a move up to near 1200. With all the talk about massive euro shorts along with the daily rsi on the /DX chart diverging and signaling a dip in the dollar just ahead not to mention the metals and energies took off running today in anticipation, I'm long small /ES looking for nominal new highs on a blow off type move..

If the dollar flushes...

2010-02-26T16:34:00.003-05:00

If the dollar flushes then I would expect the stock market might make a run for the recent highs. The RSI divergence on the daily /DX suggests there is a good chance of that happening. However with the weekly sell signal on the /ES still not completed I'm maintaining my net short positions over the weekend...

/ES 120 min bars with the weekly RSI sitaution..

2010-02-23T17:36:00.001-05:00

The Bear flag may appear to be fading..

2010-02-22T16:12:00.005-05:00

but looking a little deeper at some of the leaders suggests something different might be occurring...

RSI signal on the 120 min. bars...

2010-02-22T15:44:00.003-05:00

My hope is that the 120 min. RSI sell signal is now taking hold which is supported by the much larger weekly divergent sell signal which is still calling for a meeting with the 200 day moving average. Also of note is that a channel can still be drawn outlining the over done flag..

Both daily and intra-day $tick readings at extreme extremes..

2010-02-21T11:36:00.003-05:00

A quick glance back over several months using closing $tick values vs. SPY, and even on an intra-day basis, suggests we are at extreme overbought levels with a high probability of a market change of direction....

still not convinced..

2010-02-19T16:50:00.005-05:00

I struggled with the idea of covering all afternoon but didn't because I can still see price inside a defined channel with a RSI divergent, though fading, on the 60 minute chart. The 120 minute chart is still a firm sell signal. Also often is the case that price hesitates for 1 or 2 days before reacting to events, this often confuses and gives a false sense of calm specially near C wave terminus...

ES/ rsi divergence at the top of the channel

2010-02-18T15:53:00.004-05:00

If this is a corrective rally we are right at the limit of where the move should go via both the channel boundaries and the sell signal now flashing on both the 60 minute and 120 minute RSI...
(EDIT: the blogger wouldn't let me upload pics but the post was there prior to the discount rate hike)

Silver hitting a cieling..

2010-02-17T17:37:00.002-05:00

Looks like they raising the hammer for one last severe slap down in silver...

smelled like C wave panic covering today...

2010-02-16T17:25:00.003-05:00

Got very extreme readings on intraday $tick and RSI and I'd like to think today's close is the high of the move...

flags and consolidations....

2010-02-13T14:17:00.002-05:00

For the most part flags, pendants and consolidations tend to tilt opposite of the primary trend. With Pavlov's dog like behavior folks are pouring into what they believe is a correction in a bull market, confirmed by what has been the case since the March bottom. However I'm seeing chart after chart of bearish flag setups suggesting to me that we about to dump hard...

Weekly RSI signal still in effect...

2010-02-12T18:11:00.002-05:00

NASDQ COMP

2010-02-12T18:03:00.001-05:00

Technically it wants to dump hard again...

Sooo many flags every where I look...

2010-02-12T17:57:00.003-05:00

Just a sampling...

More on the Silver Cross...

2010-02-11T06:21:00.003-05:00

There are two other points that a trend line can be drawn from that suggest we may need to get as low as 13ish on Silver...

Silver Cross

2010-02-10T19:42:00.004-05:00

Based on the pattern that has played out throughout the entire bull move in Silver I am expecting support to come in at a minimum of 14ish where I will add to purchases of physical as a hedge against deflation being prevented.

sketching in the action..

2010-02-10T17:15:00.002-05:00

RSI on the daily ES plunged pretty deep on the first leg down and now I can visualize the ES drifting up into the 1075ish area the next few days before rolling over and making a stab down at the 200 day moving average. If so, it looks to me like daily RSI may flash a bullish divergence at that point, and so I'll be looking for one of those days where we trade down and trace out a bowl type affair, closing up near the highs at the end of the day. The weekly RSI signal at that point has reached it's minimum objective and with a bullish daily divergence I may have to flip long but we'll see how things look while thrashing around down there at the 200 day moving average...

potential 3 of 3 action developing on the ES

2010-02-09T17:29:00.004-05:00

It would fit nicely with the idea that we are going down to thrash around the 200 day moving average at a minimum soon with the ES looking like a potential 3 of 3 on deck...

$SPX target

2010-01-30T07:49:00.002-05:00

I'm looking for a touch at minimum of 1020ish on the SPX to both complete the RSI/200 day moving avg. signal..

$SPX look and feel...

2010-01-29T13:16:00.003-05:00

the $SPX has an Elliott style run away a-b-c corrective feel to it which correlates with my thoughts that we are just entering the wash out price phase of the move as signaled by the weekly RSI. I'll not be surprised if Monday is a disaster for what ever reason...

ASA vs. UUP

2010-01-26T16:36:00.002-05:00

Looking at ASA (proxy for an international precious metals type of index) against UUP, I'm seeing a topping head and shoulders pattern while at the same time it's breaking below a fairly dependable long term rising trend line. I think ASA is telegraphing expectations for a period of dollar strength...

My plan is to let XOM tell me where the bottom lies

2010-01-22T18:19:00.003-05:00

What with RSI weekly basis on $SPX yet to build to the crescendo stage and XOM losing it's grip hold of a very important long term trendline, I'll not think about covering anything until XOM reaches it's first measured move objective which lies down around 55ish and hopefully 47ish. The 55 zone on XOM suggests another 16+% decline or 950ish SPX while 47 zone suggests almost 30% from this week's close, if the $SPX can roughly correlate the action in XOM then the lower target comes in at the 800 level...

Long term transports and CSX

2010-01-19T20:23:00.003-05:00

Looks like CSX and the rails will be the catalyst for the expected sharp slide down out of the DJTRAN terminal wedge....

What XOM is telling me...

2010-01-15T18:07:00.003-05:00

I believe as XOM goes so goes the market and XOM is telling me things are about to get nasty both short and long term....

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pretty much the day by day..

2010-01-08T23:14:00.002-05:00

SPX and $TRAN

2010-01-08T22:06:00.002-05:00

Both the $SPX and $TRAN are aligned and flashing run for cover type signals...

calm before the storm?

2010-01-06T18:06:00.003-05:00

Back in Aug 08 the dollar launched higher while $SPX went into an upward skewed holding pattern waiting to see if the dollar would come back. It didn't, and soon there after the $SPX dumped. Looking at the overlay of the dollar and SPX it appears the same potential situation is at hand with the first thrust up in the dollar being doubted by investors. Bad news overseas could ignite phase 2 of the dollar rally and another dump in stocks.
The 1st Chart highlights the current market with Aug. 08.
I removed all the chaos from the one chart to show how we've come full circle and I believe are about to embark on the next leg down....

I'm seeing RSI divergences on the short medium and long term

2010-01-06T12:34:00.002-05:00

I'm seeing a double negative divergent RSI on the intraday charts which stacks up nicely with the weekly sell which is still in effect. This is telling me Friday is going to be ugly...

SPX weekly with RSI

2009-12-31T16:49:00.004-05:00

wow what a way to end the weekly close.. that last minute mini dive bomber action strengthened the sell signal on the weekly charts and now the 200 day moving avg (40wma on the weekly) is now in the cross hairs...

IYR head and shoulders objective hit..

2009-12-30T18:30:00.003-05:00

Interesting that just as the IYR is reaching it's head and shoulders price objective we are starting to see bonds roll over. I'm long the April 85 SPG puts from 8.30
The weekly SPX with RSI chart picture is still flashing a sell signal but I'd really like to see a lower close on the weekly bar..

Weekly $SPX

2009-12-23T18:09:00.002-05:00

If we can get $SPX to come back to around 1105-1110ish that would take some of the edge off of RSI's rise and still allow for a strong bearish read of the charts. In the chart below I copied and pulled up the RSI and tweaked it to reflect how it would look if we can get a lower close tomorrow to finish off the weekly bar...

inflation deflation tug of war..

2009-12-19T20:29:00.001-05:00

Sell signal intensifies

2009-12-18T18:10:00.004-05:00

Today's close coming in below the previous weekly close influences the RSI plot in a way that intensifies the sell signal with a minimum target back to the 200 day moving average. ..

DUG vs. $USDUPX.X (U.S. Dollar index)

2009-12-15T17:47:00.003-05:00

The normal correlation between DUG and the dollar is on hold while DUG consolidates in a bullish flag pattern. I'm expecting DUG to break higher...

Weekly divergence still intact..

2009-12-11T16:24:00.002-05:00

The chart looks like it's stalling out and trying to hold the 1100 area. the outside intraday ranges seem to be tracing out an arc type affair that appears to have reached exhaustion....

SPX vs RSI overlaid with RSI

2009-12-04T18:59:00.002-05:00

Once again SPX is flashing an RSI sell signal while UUP is flashing an RSI buy signal. A good visual on the reverse correlation between the two charts is presented below...

expanding triangle for a finish

2009-12-04T15:41:00.002-05:00

I think I'm seeing an expanding triangle and hoping she breaks lower...

Also looks like the weekly RSI sell signal is still intact if we can close near the lows of the day...

XOM sell signal

2009-12-01T20:28:00.002-05:00

XOM has the potential to lead the markets onwards and upwards except there is one little problem.. I've seen this patterned played out before not too long ago....

SPX RSI weekly signal

2009-11-28T08:19:00.002-05:00

The weekly RSI minimum downside target projection falls in a zone where it would both touch the 200 day moving average which is well over due and lines up parallel lower but rising channel with the current upper channel line projection. I'm looking for a 960 to 980 within the next 10 trading days.

ASA is looking due for a correction

2009-11-28T07:47:00.001-05:00

I'm expecting a decent size pull back in ASA..

$DJCOMP weekly target

2009-11-14T17:46:00.002-05:00

Looking at the weekly chart of the Dow composite index things look lined up to finally test the 200 day moving average which is at the apprx area of the minimum downside projection of the weekly RSI sell signal that is now flashing. If this price objective is met it will cause another longer term (weekly) topping chart pattern to emerge the likes of which is still yet to be seen...

RSI target hit..

2009-11-12T16:42:00.004-05:00

well the RSI sell target has been hit and I'd expect stocks may try to move back up to test the highs again however the divergence that is opening up between the high yield ramp job and utilities suggest high yield bonds have gotten ahead of themselves and should spook the market some as it comes back inline, therefore I suspect the selling in equities isn't over yet...

$SPX intra day channel targets

2009-11-11T12:10:00.002-05:00

The intra day divergence between the $SPX and RSI calls for a test of and potential break of the lower channel line...

flag consolidation in IYG

2009-11-05T17:35:00.002-05:00

I'm seeing a flag consolidation in IYG which would measure apprx. the mid way point of the move lower and would also help get us to the minimum price objective down triggered by the RSI sell signal on the SPY...

$SPX vs XOM

2009-11-03T18:08:00.003-05:00

I'm keeping a close eye on XOM as a clue to where $SPX may be heading longer term.
Notice how XOM sold off less then the markets since the 2007 top yet since the bounce off the lows XOM has lagged and seems to be trading within a longer term consolation and in fact price seems to be struggling to get above a very long term uptrend line. I think I can apply a Elliott wave count to XOM that suggests price is about to fail out this level and take us down in a large C wave affair...

IYM technicals

2009-11-03T16:55:00.002-05:00

Looks to me like IYM technical speaking is at a minimum only halfway through it's move lower which aligns with UUP and SPY targets..

SPY intra day flag/triangle consolidation

2009-11-03T15:23:00.001-05:00

Looks like money is leaking out of the bottom of the intra day triangle consolidation in the SPY...

Dollar vs. SPY

2009-11-02T20:07:00.002-05:00

an overlay comparison of UUP over SPY with RSI divergent signals suggest the blue dashed lines as minimum targets in the price action..

The next shoe to drop...

2009-11-02T11:45:00.002-05:00

Just looking at C from a technical stand point let alone the fundies and I think I can see where one of the next shoes to drop will come from. On the daily when you see a test of the lows coming in this kind of pattern and then look a little deeper and see the one minute intra day bar chart with OBV and something about to snap...

SPY weekly

2009-10-30T20:06:00.002-04:00

The weekly chart stepped up and over ruled the whip action in the daily chart and now has a minimum price objective of 101.98 but I suspect with the speed of the decline and increasing volume accompanying it that the gravitational pull of the 200 day moving average has taken over and demands a revisit of price...

SPY thoughts..

2009-10-29T17:47:00.003-04:00

I'm looking for a wide and volatile flag type affair in the SPY in the coming days while the weekly charts still have a bearish look to them...

$SPX techincals

2009-10-28T18:12:00.003-04:00

I still believe the failed head and shoulders break out which sparked the last few months of rally needs to be revisited partly because you would expect a huge surge of volume on that kind of move which did not occur. Also the slower 14 day RSI has flashed a sell signal which is confirmed by the diverged OBV and I noticed that of the 4 recent roll over dips the previous 3 occurred with negligible volume and this last one was accompanied with 6 straight days of heavy volume. Lets not forget price has pulled to record distance from the 200 day moving average which is set to exert it's gravitational pull on the market....

HD head and shoulders

2009-10-27T16:55:00.002-04:00

Home Depot looks to be setting up a head and shoulders pattern and using OBV to gauge the internal volume flow confirms and supports the idea that the neckline will break to the downside...

Looking for a lower close on the weekly $SPX

2009-10-26T15:12:00.003-04:00

I lower close on the weekly $SPX chart will solidify an RSI sell signal and mark the beginning of a more substantial trend change...

$SPX over UUP uptade...

2009-10-25T11:49:00.002-04:00

Price action looks about ready to spread apart...

it's still early but..

2009-10-23T10:54:00.002-04:00

given the look and feel to the transports and the NYSI I don't see how they can close today to the plus side.. seems more how low can it close if anything...

SPY action..

2009-10-21T19:01:00.002-04:00

I'll be looking for follow through selling on heavy volume to confirm a 2 day key reversal type move with a 1st target coming in the zone of the 200 day moving avg...

gold and the dollar...

2009-10-20T18:03:00.004-04:00

It appears that both gold and the dollar are flashing warning signals to the equity markets. The below chart shows the coiled RSI set ups in both GDX and UUP....

a few basic technical divergences

2009-10-20T17:12:00.002-04:00

RKH RSI

2009-10-19T17:53:00.002-04:00

the regional banking index is holding in with a nicely divereged RSI sell signal and now it looks like ZION bank should get the ball rolling to the downside despite the AAPL party...

Elliott wave thoughts....

2009-10-17T09:56:00.006-04:00

I'm considering the idea that wave 3 and 5 both threw over the channel based on a combination of fed pumping, corruption in analysts buy recommendations leading to the tech wreck, more fed pumping after 9/11 with more rating agency corruption leading to the housing crash and now a finale desperate fed pump that has only brought us back up to test the upper channel line. (labeled wave B) which suggests a collapse on deck (wave C) which takes us down through the lower channel line by late summer or early fall of 2010....

1939 vs. 2009 updated

2009-10-16T17:01:00.001-04:00

GLD plays off the plunge in the dollar...

2009-10-14T17:34:00.003-04:00

Interesting action in GLD despite the deep plunge in UUP...

SPY and UUP RSI signals

2009-10-14T17:06:00.002-04:00

SPY looking weak..

2009-10-12T17:30:00.006-04:00

going into the fall season SPY appears to be flashing sell signals as it edges higher with both RSI building a bearish coil and OBV not confirming the move up. Notice how OBV held firm with a higher low in July before the launch higher. This time I'm seeing the opposite..

potential SPY channels...

2009-10-11T13:16:00.004-04:00

This appears to be as good a level as any to mark a turn lower on the SPY short term regardless of whether this is a new bull run or a topping of the downward channel...perhaps a cross roads while the dollar is coiling for a surge higher..

geometric visuals..

2009-10-09T20:21:00.002-04:00

stepping back and searching for some geometric proportion derived off parallels tied to the major trend channels reveals one possibility that we are pressing against an upper channel in a bull trend and may need to test the low end of the range. I'm not a bull but perhaps at the least we are do for a correction..

SPY OBV

2009-10-08T19:11:00.002-04:00

The SPY which has broken below the long term uptrend line may be forming a topping upward skewed head and shoulders pattern with the way the volume is playing out on OBV...

Dollar looks like it's about to explode north...

2009-10-08T17:39:00.004-04:00

Looking at the dollar through UUP I'm seeing the potential for one more intra day low followed by a higher close that would mark the intermediate low for the dollar..

ALso I'm seeing the potential for a substantial move lower in the energy sector through OIH which reveals a divergent RSI on the break out higher that occurred on negligible volume, not what you would expect on a break out...

SPY broken long term trend line..

2009-10-06T17:07:00.002-04:00

with a retest of the line from underneath..

The first substantial negative divergence in the OBV also appeared with the break of the longer term uptrend line....

Bonds and stocks dislocation...

2009-10-04T19:36:00.002-04:00

It seems ever since the failed head and shoulders pattern on the spy, which mysteriously came on low volume, the bond and stock market have dislocated from their normal inverse relationship...

fractal action..

2009-10-04T18:58:00.002-04:00

overlay update...

long term cycles in tax rates..

2009-10-04T18:01:00.002-04:00

If one could apply ta to a long term chart of tax rates and assume there is a cyclical nature to it then the below chart courtesy of Dshorts.com, (which I have molested with crayon scribbles in order to help expose the correlation with stock prices) suggests that tax rates are about to spike higher to try to pay down the debt binge of the last 20+ years causing the stock market to struggle for the next decade or two...

collapse speed..

2009-10-04T15:56:00.003-04:00

One possibility is that we've collapsed too rapidly beyond a lower downward trend channel and the market needed time to catch up with a more orderly drain of funds out of the stock market.. something similar to the angle of descent during the tech wreck (yellow price channel). If so the next move should be down to an area that either defines a new point along a lower bullish trend channel, or worse, a move to new lows....

intra day flag action...

2009-10-02T14:28:00.003-04:00

I'm suspecting we are getting intra day flag action built on shorts coming out and chasing the offer while the OBV stays flatlined to down... looking for a weak close into the weekend...

This time adding one word....

2009-10-01T17:50:00.004-04:00

Adding one word (dow) search field, which is probably what the typical mutual fund/retail trader might use in comments spread out over the internet reveals a massive difference in the numbers....

Ok I should have refined the search by time frame. Looking back one week it reveals twice as many bullish hits..

A look back at an odd market turn...

2009-10-01T17:12:00.003-04:00

I keep coming back to that failed head and shoulders break out that occurred at the 87ish area on the SPY and the volume action that occurred or didn't occur at that time and all the way up since then. As the chart below highlights every single market turn has been marked by a volume spike which one would expect to see. Oddly the one instance where no volume markers occurred is at that failed head and shoulders pattern, which one might expect to see the largest spike of all on the entire chart. My first target is 93-94ish on this down leg but I'm wondering if we are in fact riding on a giant air pocket and now need to retest that 87ish zone at a minimum at some point soon.

interesting survey of Bulls and Bears...

2009-09-29T21:49:00.002-04:00

comparing the magnitude of the bounce vs. 03 bounce

2009-09-25T17:54:00.002-04:00

just a quick cut and paste overlay of the current QE pumped Bear market bounce vs the 2003 bounce to get a sense of the unprecedented strength and steepness of the move...

and yet another overlay lined up via calendar basis..

2009-09-24T19:46:00.002-04:00

This time I'm overlaying the two periods based on the calendar basis...

The same 1939 fractal..

2009-09-24T18:37:00.002-04:00

viewed this time with the current $SPX graph positioned above the 1939 chart action...

1939 vs 2009

2009-09-24T17:05:00.002-04:00

searching for scale and proportion between the two post crash periods I discovered that measured from peak highs to 1st rally peaks came in at exactly 31.6% before rolling over into the fall season. If this turns out to be a good fractal then the 12.5% correction that followed would take us down to apprx. 940ish on the $SPX...

Looking for fractal lows..

2009-09-21T19:29:00.004-04:00

This time setting up the $compq index with the 1938 dow suggests lower prices on deck..

IYG looks as good I time as ever for a turn..

2009-09-21T17:45:00.003-04:00

Still short and very near a point where I will be forced to cover but IYG holds hope that a turn is very near...

QQQQ fractal action...

2009-09-12T15:08:00.002-04:00

The Summation index weekly basis

2009-09-04T17:17:00.005-04:00

appears to have finally established it's down side momo and is sure to take equities down with it. Combine that with the out sized spread of the S&P over the 200 day moving average and the RSI sell signal and those last few remaining bullish passengers loaded on the Bear bus it appears the market is now ready to head down for the next 6 to 8 weeks..

I like to use the weekly Summation index overlaid with the $NYSE in order to help reveal the shorter term cycles. In the below chart any time the summation index has clearly rolled over forming a peak (blue circled areas) the market then sells off and doesn't let up until it reaches the next cycle low bar. The bars are established by lining up swing lows in the summation index with the stock index. Observing the average time span between the bars helps in projecting when the selling may let off. As far as I'm concerned the SI peak has completed and we are now going down finally!

Looking at the recent action on the 120 min. bar chart it looks to me that the top is in at 1038ish with the first leg being corrected to the .618 fib zone which resets the RSI for the next down leg...

GS on balance volume 1 minute basis...

2009-09-03T16:18:00.005-04:00

The on balance volume in GS on a one minute basis over the last 3 days shows much heavier volume on the sell and what I suspect is shorts and market order buyers getting squeezed on the up ticks which reveals itself in the OBV highlighted in the chart below...

which leads me to suspect we are tracing out a flag type formation that will break down towards the low 150ies which when sketched out appears to have a good feel to the chart picture...